Global Markets

GLOBAL MARKETS

Global Markets

As we monitor both Markets and the Economy at large, we like to keep tabs on "Sector Rotation" just to test the theory. For more information you can Subscribe Below or just Contact Us...

Facinating Fact: DID YOU KNOW?

Sector rotation is an investment strategy involving the movement of money from one industry sector to another in an attempt to beat the market. It began as a theory from National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) data on economic cycles back to 1854. This theoretical model is based on Sam Stovall's S&P's Guide to Sector Rotation and states that different sectors are stronger at different points in the economic cycle..

The Chinese slowdown has dramatically effected Miners over the past year and a half to two years, and perhaps now the price is right to get back in. We can see the shift happening as the market bottoming players are making a turnabout. I will tread carefully here as the likely traps are still in place. This is a playground for the daring... Dividend yields are temptingly high, but remember, you have been warned!

8 Year Trend analysis and forecast

Bigham Consulting draws on a unique blend of research and analysis to inform our advisory practices.

MARKET OUTLOOK

Market Outlook

Global markets appear to be getting back on track after what appeared to be a false start to the year. Were seeing more balanced inflows into global equities and bond markets. It certainly seems that investors are more focussed on the fundamentals. We believe this to be good news and our outlook pivots on three themes right now.

We remain Bullish on Equities

Our analysis suggests that equity markets are not cheap but our view is that we continue to be in a bull market and earnings fundamentals will likely drive these markets forward.

As such our portfolio is overweighted towards global equities at this time. The Europe recovery is still improving but we believe it to be fragile at best.

We remain underweight on Bonds

The Stock Market is no place for the unenlightened. Our simple guides are designed to help the new and experienced alike to make better investing and trading decisions. These guides are not financial advice but material to educate you on better practical risk management approaches.

The US Economy had a slower than anticipated start to the year and so we expect the US Treasuries end of year return to be muted. We suggest caution when it comes to duration and would wait a while before entering long dated bond maturities.

We're Seeking Alpha

We still believe the fundamentals around credit markets are strong but we don't think its the best time to start adding more bond positions, a perspective that has somewhat changed since the start of the year.

We think this is a favourable time for stock picking and we seek Out-Performance (Alpha) taking long short event driven position trades to the year end at least, a relative value strategy rotating out of bonds.

Global Private Equity managers also appear to be taking advantage of the many opportunities open to them right now and so we remain positive in this market also. Were seeing opportunities for listed PE firms technology, energy and industrials. Supply imbalances in global commodities are also throwing up opportunities as well. as well as the .

The outlook for the remainder of this year

Inflationary pressures in the developed markets seem weak from our perspective, this is positive and supportive of equities.

Our belief at this time is short term interest rates are expected to rise in the US, UK and Europe in the middle of next year, which should be supportive of stronger global growth.

If you wish to learn more then please feel free to contact us a Bigham Consulting associate will be in touch with you.

SECTOR ROTATION

We examine the global macro economy with reference to productivity and debt cycles.

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

We monitor the business cycle impact on stock market sector rotation and price performnce

OUR MODEL PORTFOLIO

Our Model Portfolio provides us with invaluable insight into the effectiveness of our forecasting and analysis.

This publication will show you step by step how to evaluate and select stocks. Risk weight your capital across a basket of stocks.

Fully illustrated with examples of real a real trading system that out performed the market for over 10 years, consistently.

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OUR GUIDE TO TRADING WITH CONFIDENCE

Most investors are unsure about their stock picking skills. It is because of this that they lack confidence and sell into the least market downturn, only to regretfully watch the market recover in a day or so after they have taken losses.

In this guide we explain how you can avoid this unnecessary behaviour by teaching you how to set risk adjusted stop losses. You'll learn when to hold and when to fold, avoiding the uncertainty helps you sleep better at night.