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8 Year Trend analysis and forecast
Global markets appear to be getting back on track after what appeared to be a false start to the year. Were seeing more balanced inflows into global equities and bond markets. It certainly seems that investors are more focussed on the fundamentals. We believe this to be good news and our outlook pivots on three themes right now.
We remain Bullish on Equities
As such our portfolio is overweighted towards global equities at this time. The Europe recovery is still improving but we believe it to be fragile at best.
We remain underweight on Bonds
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The US Economy had a slower than anticipated start to the year and so we expect the US Treasuries end of year return to be muted. We suggest caution when it comes to duration and would wait a while before entering long dated bond maturities.
We're Seeking Alpha
We think this is a favourable time for stock picking and we seek Out-Performance (Alpha) taking long short event driven position trades to the year end at least, a relative value strategy rotating out of bonds.
Global Private Equity managers also appear to be taking advantage of the many opportunities open to them right now and so we remain positive in this market also. Were seeing opportunities for listed PE firms technology, energy and industrials. Supply imbalances in global commodities are also throwing up opportunities as well. as well as the .
The outlook for the remainder of this year
Inflationary pressures in the developed markets seem weak from our perspective, this is positive and supportive of equities.
Our belief at this time is short term interest rates are expected to rise in the US, UK and Europe in the middle of next year, which should be supportive of stronger global growth.
If you wish to learn more then please feel free to contact us a Bigham Consulting associate will be in touch with you.
We examine the global macro economy with reference to productivity and debt cycles.
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