2016 Macroeconomic Themes

Home
Why Us
Research
   Economics
Consulting
Advisory
Blog
Contact Us
Client Log In

BUSINESS CONFIDENCE GROWTH PAUSES AFTER WEAK DATA FROM THE US AND CHINA

Headline Results

We expect to see steady economic growth, divergent monetary policy in developed markets and faster inflation.

Since the global financial crisis of 2008, China has been viewed as the engine of the world’s economy. Yet with more sturdy fundamentals re-emerging in the US ​
and Western Europe, the role of Western consumers in driving demand is coming back to the fore.
The employment index continued to rise for the sixth straight quarter, while investment in capital projects edged up marginally.
 These findings indicate an underlying sense of confidence in the global economic recovery. ​
There was, however, significant regional variation in the relationship between confidence in the economic outlook and willingness to take on new staff . ​
This may reflect a degree of uncertainty about the sustainability of business growth in regions that still face numerous internal challenges and external vulnerabilities.
Of these factors, China’s economic slowdown and accompanying shift from investment to consumption-driven growth will have the greatest long-term impact on global trade patterns, hitting the world’s major commodity exporters particularly hard. 
In North America, the number of firms creating new jobs was actually greater than those expressing greater confidence in the economy. 
In South Asia and Africa, by contrast, relatively high confidence had yet to translate into new investments in people. ​